Bitcoin Historical Price & Events

Which API has the longest historical record?

Been looking for an site with historical data pre 2014 and an API. Is there any? Mt gox was launched in 2010, there should be a chart contanig prices from as far as when bitcoin first got an "official" price right?
submitted by fjkcdhkkcdtilj to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

TRUE historical data on yearly lows (correcting repetitive historical false information spread on reddit and twitter)

Recently, wrong historical data on the alleged Bitcoin yearly lows could be repetitively read in ill-researched or "blindly copy-pasted" posts and tweets, e.g. falsely claiming a yearly low for 2013 of $65, where $13 is the correct value (wrong by a factor of 5)!
Here is the correct data:
TRUE yearly lows (first historically recorded trade occurred at MtGox exchange on 17th July 2010; bitstamp exchange started operation on 13 Sep 2011*):
*not included: Bitcoin prices of around $0.003 on Bitcoin USD markets recorded since 25th April 2010, consistent with famous two Bitcoin pizzas from 22nd May 2010 worth $30 for 10,000 BTC.
Yearly absolute lows (just omitting obvious implausible data flaws) - not recommended because short outliers of very low trade volumes can bias the view of the real market situation:
Yearly lows of daily weighted averages - more useful because short outliers with very low volumes are not biasing the statistics:
  • 2010: $0.05 (MtGox, 17th & 24th & 25th & 26th July)
  • 2011: $0.29 (MtGox, 4th January)
  • 2011: $2.24 (bitstamp, 21st October)
  • 2012: $4.33 (bitstamp, 19th February)
  • 2013: $13.01 (bitstamp, 1st January)
  • 2014: $305.81 (bitstamp, 5th October)
  • 2015: $189.84 (bitstamp, 14th January)
  • 2016: $370.21 (bitstamp, 3rd February)
  • 2017: $783.46 (bitstamp, 12th January)
  • 2018: $3171.72 (bitstamp, 15th December)
  • 2019: $3365.06 (bitstamp, 7th February)
  • 2020: <= $7030.21 (bitstamp, 2nd January)
Change rates:
  • 2011: x 5.8 (+480%)
  • 2012: x 14.9 (+1390%)
  • 2013: x 3.0 (+200%)
  • 2014: x 23.5 (+2250%)
  • 2015: x 0.6 (-40%)
  • 2016: x 2.0 (+100%)
  • 2017: x 2.1 (+110%)
  • 2018: x 4.0 (+300%)
  • 2019: x 1.1 (+10%)
  • 2020: <= x 2.1 (<= +110%)
How to do this yourself:
Example for 2013:
https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60zczsg2013-01-01zeg2013-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
Click on "Load raw data" below the chart, copy-paste to spreadsheet like Libre Calc or MS Excel or Google documents, apply "min" function on the column of daily lows or daily weighted averages.
For year 2013 on bitstamp, the yearly low was reached on 1st January 2013: - Daily absolute low = $12.77 - Daily weighted average = $13.01
submitted by Amichateur to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

25 Tools and Resources for Crypto Investors: Guide to how to create a winning strategy

Lots of people have PM'd me asking me the same questions on where to find information and how to put together their portfolio so I decided to put a guide for crypto investors, especially those who have only been in a few months and are still confused.
This is going to be Part 1 and will deal with research resources, risk and returns. In Part 2 I'll post a systematic approach to valuation and picking individual assets with derived price targets.

Getting started: Tools and resources

You don't have to be a programmer or techie to invest in crypto, but you should first learn the basics of how it functions. I find that this video by 3Blue1Brown is the best introduction to what a blockchain actually is and how it functions, because it explains it clearly and simply with visuals while not dumbing it down too much. If you want a more ELI5 version with cute cartoons, then Upfolio has a nice beginner's intro to the blockchain concept and quick descriptions of top 100 cryptocurrencies. I also recommend simply going to Wikipedia and reading the blockchain and cryptocurrency page and clicking onto a few links in, read about POS vs POW...etc. Later on you'll need this information to understand why a specific use case may or may not benefit from a blockchain structure. Here is a quick summary of the common terms you should know.
Next you should arm yourself with some informational resources. I compiled a convenient list of useful tools and sites that I've used and find to be worthy of bookmarking:
Market information
Analysis tools
Portfolio Tracking
Youtube
I generally don't follow much on Youtube because it's dominated by idiocy like Trevon James and CryptoNick, but there are some that I think are worthy of following:

Constructing a Investment Strategy

I can't stress enough how important it is to construct an actual investment strategy. Organize what your goals are, what your risk tolerance is and how you plan to construct a portfolio to achieve those goals rather than just chasing the flavor of the week.
Why? Because it will force you to slow down and make decisions based on rational thinking rather than emotion, and will also inevitably lead you to think long term.

Setting ROI targets

Bluntly put, a lot of young investors who are in crypto have really unrealistic expectations about returns and risk.
A lot of them have never invested in any other type of financial asset, and hence many seem to consider a 10% ROI in a month to be unexciting, even though that is roughly what they should be aiming for.
I see a ton of people now on this sub and on other sites making their decisions with the expectation to double their money every month. This has lead a worrying amount of newbies putting in way too much money way too quickly into anything on the front page of CoinMarketCap with a low dollar value per coin hoping that crypto get them out of their debt or a life of drudgery in a cubicle. And all in the next year or two!
But its important to temper your hype about returns and realize why we had this exponential growth in the last year. Its not because we are seeing any mass increase in adoption, if anything adoption among eCommerce sites is decreasing. The only reason we saw so much upward price action is because of fiat monetary base expansion from people FOMO-ing in due to media coverage of previous price action. People are hoping to ride the bubble and sell to a greater fool in a few months, it is classic Greater Fool Theory. That's it. We passed the $1,000 psychological marker again for Bitcoin which we hadn't seen since right before the Mt.Gox disaster, and it just snowballed the positivity as headline after headline came out about the price growth. However those unexciting returns of 10% a month are not only the norm, but much more healthy for an alternative investment class. Here are the annual returns for Bitcoin for the last few years:
Year BTC Return
2017 1,300%
2016 120%
2015 35%
2014 -60%
2013 5300%
2012 150 %
Keep in mind that a 10% monthly increase when compounded equals a 313% annual return, or over 3x your money. That may not sound exciting to those who entered recently and saw their money go 20x in a month on something like Tron before it crashed back down, but that 3X annual return is better than Bitcoin's return every year except the year right before the last market meltdown and 2017. I have been saying for a while now that we are due for a major correction and every investor now should be planning for that possibility through proper allocation and setting return expectations that are reasonable.

Risk Management

Quanitifying risk in crypto is surprisingly difficult because the historical returns aren't normally distributed, meaning that tools like Sharpe Ratio and other risk metrics can't really be used as intended. Instead you'll have to think of your own risk tolerance and qualitatively evaluate how risky each crypto is based on the team, the use case prospects, the amount of competition and the general market risk.
You can think of each crypto having a risk factor that is the summation of the general crypto market risk (Rm) as ultimately everything is tied to how Bitcoin does, but also its own inherent risk specific to its own goals (Ri).
Rt = Rm +Ri
The market risk is something you cannot avoid, if some China FUD comes out about regulations on Bitcoin then your investment in solid altcoin picks will go down too along with Bitcoin. This (Rm) return is essentially what risk you undertake to have a market ROI of 385% I talked about above. What you can minimize though is the Ri, the aset specific risks with the team, the likelihood they will actually deliver, the likelihood that their solution will be adopted. Unfortunately there is no one way to do this, you simply have to take the time to research and form your own opinion on how risky it really is before allocating a certain percentage to it. Consider the individual risk of each crypto and start looking for red flags:
  • guaranteed promises of large returns (protip: that's a Ponzi)
  • float allocations that give way too much to the founder
  • vague whitepapers
  • vague timelines
  • no clear use case
  • Github with no useful code and sparse activity
  • a team that is difficult to find information on or even worse anonymous
While all cryptocurrencies are a risky investments but generally you can break down cryptos into "low" risk core, medium risk speculative and high risk speculative
  • Low Risk Core - This is the exchange pairing cryptos and those that are well established. These are almost sure to be around in 5 years, and will recover after any bear market. Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum are in this class of risk, and I would also argue Monero.
  • Medium Risk Speculative - These would be cryptos which generally have at least some product and are reasonably established, but higher risk than Core. Things like ZCash, Ripple, NEO..etc.
  • High Risk Speculative - This is anything created within the last few months, low caps, shillcoins, ICOs...etc. Most cryptos are in this category, most of them will be essentially worthless in 5 years.
How much risk should you take on? That depends on your own life situation but also it should be proportional to how much expertise you have in both financial analysis and technology. If you're a newbie who doesn't understand the tech and has no idea how to value assets, your risk tolerance should be lower than a programmer who understand the tech or a financial analyst who is experienced in valuation metrics.
Right now the trio of BTC-ETH-LTC account for 55% of the market cap, so between 50-70% of your portfolio in low Risk Core for newbies is a great starting point. Then you can go down to 25-30% as you gain confidence and experience. But always try to keep about 1/3rd in safe core positions. Don't go all in on speculative picks.
Core principles to minimize risk
  • Have the majority of your holdings in things you feel good holding for at least 2 years. Don't use the majority of your investment for day trading or short term investing.
  • Consider using dollar cost averaging to enter a position. This generally means investing a X amount over several periods, instead of at once. You can also use downward biased dollar cost averaging to mitigate against downward risk. For example instead of investing $1000 at once in a position at market price, you can buy $500 at the market price today then set several limit orders at slightly lower intervals (for example $250 at 5% lower than market price, $250 at 10% lower than market price). This way your average cost of acquisition will be lower if the crypto happens to decline over the short term.
  • Never chase a pump. Its simply too risky as its such an inefficient and unregulated market. If you continue to do it, most of your money losing decisions will be because you emotionally FOMO-ed into gambling on a symbol.
  • Invest what you can afford to lose. Don't have more than 5-10% of your net worth in crypto.
  • Consider what level of loss you can't accept in a position with a high risk factor, and use stop-limit orders to hedge against sudden crashes. Set you stop price at about 5-10% above your lowest limit. Stop-limit orders aren't perfect but they're better than having no hedging strategy for a risky microcap in case of some meltdown. Only you can determine what bags you are unwilling to hold.
  • Diversify across sectors and rebalance your allocations periodically. Keep about 1/3rd in low risk core holdings.
  • Have some fiat in reserve at a FDIC-insured exchange (ex. Gemini), and be ready to add to your winning positions on a pullback.
  • Remember you didn't actually make any money until you take some profits, so take do some profits when everyone else is at peak FOMO-ing bubble mode. You will also sleep much more comfortably once you take out the equivalent of your principal.

Portfolio Allocation

Along with thinking about your portfolio in terms of risk categories described above, I really find it helpful to think about the segments you are in. OnChainFX has some segment categorization to think about:
  • Currency
  • General Purpose Platform
  • Advertising
  • Crowdfunding Platform
  • Lending Platform
  • Privacy
  • Distributed Computing/Storage
  • Prediction Markets
  • IOT (Internet of Things)
  • Asset Management
  • Content Creation
  • Exchange Platform
I generally like to simplify these down to these 7 segments:
  • Core holdings - essentially the Low Risk Core segment
  • Platform segment
  • Privacy segment
  • Finance/Bank settlement segment
  • Enterprise Blockchain solutions segment
  • Promising/Innovative Tech segment
This is merely what I use, but I'm sure you can think of your own. The key point I have is to try to invest your medium and high risk picks in a segment you understand well, and in which you can relatively accurately judge risk. If you don't understand anything about how banking works or SWIFT or international settlement layers, don't invest in Stellar. If you have no idea how a supply chain functions, avoid investing in VeChain (even if it's being shilled to death on Reddit at the moment just like XRB was last month). Buffet calls this "circle of competence", he invests in sectors he understands and avoids those he doesn't like tech. I think doing the same thing in crypto is a wise move.
What's interesting is that often we see like-coin movement, for example when a coin from one segment pumps we will frequently see another similar coin in the same segment go up (think Stellar following after Ripple).
Consider the historic correlations between your holdings. Generally when Bitcoin pumps, altcoins dump but at what rate depends on the coin. When Bitcoin goes sideways we tend to see pumping in altcoins, while when Bitcoin goes down, everything goes down.
You should set price targets for each of your holdings, which is a whole separate discussion I'll go in Part 2 of the guide.

Summing it up

This was meant to get you think about what return targets you should set for your portfolio and how much risk you are willing to take and what strategies you can follow to mitigate that risk.
Returns around 385% (average crypto market CAGR over the last 3 years) would be a good target to aim for while remaining realistic, you can tweak it a bit based on your own risk tolerance. What category of risk your individual crypto picks should be will be determined by how much more greed you have for above average market return. A portfolio of 50% core holdings, 30% medium risk in a sector you understand well and 20% in high risk speculative is probably what the average portfolio should look like, with newbies going more towards 70% core and only 5% high risk speculative.
Just by thinking about these things you'll likely do better than most crypto investors, because most don't think about this stuff, to their own detriment.
submitted by arsonbunny to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Crypto Investing Guide: Useful resources and tools, and how to create an investment strategy

Lots of people have PM'd me asking me the same questions on where to find information and how to put together their portfolio so I decided to put a guide for crypto investors, especially those who have only been in a few months and are still confused.
Many people entered recently at a time when the market was rewarding the very worst type of investment behavior. Unfortunately there aren't many guides and a lot of people end up looking at things like Twitter or the trending Youtube crypto videos, which is dominated by "How to make $1,00,000 by daytrading crypto" and influencers like CryptoNick.
So I'll try to put together a guide from what I've learned and some tips, on how to invest in this asset class. This is going to be Part 1, in another post later I'll post a systematic approach to valuation and picking individual assets.

Getting started: Tools and resources

You don't have to be a programmer or techie to invest in crypto, but you should first learn the basics of how it functions. I find that this video by 3Blue1Brown is the best introduction to what a blockchain actually is and how it functions, because it explains it clearly and simply with visuals while not dumbing it down too much. If you want a more ELI5 version with cute cartoons, then Upfolio has a nice beginner's intro to the blockchain concept and quick descriptions of top 100 cryptocurrencies. I also recommend simply going to Wikipedia and reading the blockchain and cryptocurrency page and clicking onto a few links in, read about POS vs POW...etc. Later on you'll need this information to understand why a specific use case may or may not benefit from a blockchain structure. Here is a quick summary of the common terms you should know.
Next you should arm yourself with some informational resources. I compiled a convenient list of useful tools and sites that I've used and find to be worthy of bookmarking:
Market information
Analysis tools
Portfolio Tracking
Youtube
I generally don't follow much on Youtube because it's dominated by idiocy like Trevon James and CryptoNick, but there are some that I think are worthy of following:

Constructing a Investment Strategy

I can't stress enough how important it is to construct an actual investment strategy. Organize what your goals are, what your risk tolerance is and how you plan to construct a portfolio to achieve those goals rather than just chasing the flavor of the week.
Why? Because it will force you to slow down and make decisions based on rational thinking rather than emotion, and will also inevitably lead you to think long term.

Setting ROI targets

Bluntly put, a lot of young investors who are in crypto have really unrealistic expectations about returns and risk.
A lot of them have never invested in any other type of financial asset, and hence many seem to consider a 10% ROI in a month to be unexciting, even though that is roughly what they should be aiming for.
I see a ton of people now on this sub and on other sites making their decisions with the expectation to double their money every month. This has lead a worrying amount of newbies putting in way too much money way too quickly into anything on the front page of CoinMarketCap with a low dollar value per coin hoping that crypto get them out of their debt or a life of drudgery in a cubicle. And all in the next year or two!
But its important to temper your hype about returns and realize why we had this exponential growth in the last year. The only reason we saw so much upward price action is because of fiat monetary base expansion from people FOMO-ing in due to media coverage. People are hoping to ride the bubble and sell to a greater fool in a few months, it is classic Greater Fool Theory. That's it. Its not because we are seeing any mass increase in adoption or actual widespread utility with cryptocurrency. We passed the $1,000 psychological marker again for Bitcoin which we hadn't seen since right before the Mt.Gox disaster, and it just snowballed the positivity as headline after headline came out about the price growth. However those unexciting returns of 10% a month are not only the norm, but much more healthy for an alternative investment class. Here are the annual returns for Bitcoin for the last few years:
Year BTC Return
2017 1,300%
2016 120%
2015 35%
2014 -60%
2013 5300%
2012 150 %
Keep in mind that a 10% monthly increase when compounded equals a 313% annual return, or over 3x your money. That may not sound exciting to those who entered recently and saw their money go 20x in a month on something like Tron before it crashed back down, but that 3X annual return is better than Bitcoin's return every year except the year right before the last market meltdown and 2017. I have been saying for a while now that we are due for a major correction and every investor now should be planning for that possibility through proper allocation and setting return expectations that are reasonable.
How to set a realistic ROI target
How do I set my own personal return target?
Basically I aim to achieve a portfolio return of roughly 385% annually (3.85X increase per year) or about 11.89% monthly return when compounded. How did I come up with that target? I base it on the average compounded annual growth return (CAGR) over the last 3 years on the entire market:
Year Total Crypto Market Cap
Jan 1, 2014: $10.73 billion
Jan 1, 2017: $615 billion
Compounded annual growth return (CAGR): (615/10.73)1/3 = 385%
My personal strategy is to sell my portfolio every December then buy back into the market at around the beginning of February and I intend to hold on average for 3 years, so this works for me but you may choose to do it a different way for your own reasons. I think this is a good average to aim for as a general guideline because it includes both the good years (2017) and the bad (2014). Once you have a target you can construct your risk profile (low risk vs. high risk category coins) in your portfolio. If you want to try for a higher CAGR than about 385% then you will likely need to go into more highly speculative picks. I can't tell you what return target you should set for yourself, but just make sure its not depended on you needing to achieve continual near vertical parabolic price action in small cap shillcoins because that isn't sustainable.
As the recent January dip showed while the core cryptos like Bitcoin and Ethereum would dip an X percentage, the altcoins would often drop double or triple that amount. Its a very fragile market, and the type of dumb behavior that people were engaging in that was profitable in a bull market (chasing pumps, going all in on a microcap shillcoin, having an attention span of a squirrel...etc) will lead to consequences. Just like they jumped on the crypto bandwagon without thinking about risk adjusted returns, they will just as quickly jump on whatever bandwagon will be used to blame for the deflation of the bubble, whether the blame is assigned to Wall Steet and Bitcoin futures or Asians or some government.
Nobody who pumped money into garbage without any use case or utility will accept that they themselves and their own unreasonable expectations for returns were the reason for the gross mispricing of most cryptocurrencies.

Risk Management

Quanitifying risk in crypto is surprisingly difficult because the historical returns aren't normally distributed, meaning that tools like Sharpe Ratio and other risk metrics can't really be used as intended. Instead you'll have to think of your own risk tolerance and qualitatively evaluate how risky each crypto is based on the team, the use case prospects, the amount of competition and the general market risk.
You can think of each crypto having a risk factor that is the summation of the general crypto market risk (Rm) as ultimately everything is tied to how Bitcoin does, but also its own inherent risk specific to its own goals (Ri).
Rt = Rm +Ri
The market risk is something you cannot avoid, if some China FUD comes out about regulations on Bitcoin then your investment in solid altcoin picks will go down too along with Bitcoin. This (Rm) return is essentially what risk you undertake to have a market ROI of 385% I talked about above. What you can minimize though is the Ri, the aset specific risks with the team, the likelihood they will actually deliver, the likelihood that their solution will be adopted. Unfortunately there is no one way to do this, you simply have to take the time to research and form your own opinion on how risky it really is before allocating a certain percentage to it. Consider the individual risk of each crypto and start looking for red flags:
  • guaranteed promises of large returns (protip: that's a Ponzi)
  • float allocations that give way too much to the founder
  • vague whitepapers
  • vague timelines
  • no clear use case
  • Github with no useful code and sparse activity
  • a team that is difficult to find information on or even worse anonymous
While all cryptocurrencies are a risky investments but generally you can break down cryptos into "low" risk core, medium risk speculative and high risk speculative
  • Low Risk Core - This is the exchange pairing cryptos and those that are well established. These are almost sure to be around in 5 years, and will recover after any bear market. Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum are in this class of risk, and I would also argue Monero.
  • Medium Risk Speculative - These would be cryptos which generally have at least some product and are reasonably established, but higher risk than Core. Things like ZCash, Ripple, NEO..etc.
  • High Risk Speculative - This is anything created within the last few months, low caps, shillcoins, ICOs...etc. Most cryptos are in this category, most of them will be essentially worthless in 5 years.
How much risk should you take on? That depends on your own life situation but also it should be proportional to how much expertise you have in both financial analysis and technology. If you're a newbie who doesn't understand the tech and has no idea how to value assets, your risk tolerance should be lower than a programmer who understand the tech or a financial analyst who is experienced in valuation metrics.
Right now the trio of BTC-ETH-LTC account for 55% of the market cap, so between 50-70% of your portfolio in low Risk Core for newbies is a great starting point. Then you can go down to 25-30% as you gain confidence and experience. But always try to keep about 1/3rd in safe core positions. Don't go all in on speculative picks.
Core principles to minimize risk
  • Have the majority of your holdings in things you feel good holding for at least 2 years. Don't use the majority of your investment for day trading or short term investing.
  • Consider using dollar cost averaging to enter a position. This generally means investing a X amount over several periods, instead of at once. You can also use downward biased dollar cost averaging to mitigate against downward risk. For example instead of investing $1000 at once in a position at market price, you can buy $500 at the market price today then set several limit orders at slightly lower intervals (for example $250 at 5% lower than market price, $250 at 10% lower than market price). This way your average cost of acquisition will be lower if the crypto happens to decline over the short term.
  • Never chase a pump. Its simply too risky as its such an inefficient and unregulated market. If you continue to do it, most of your money losing decisions will be because you emotionally FOMO-ed into gambling on a symbol.
  • Invest what you can afford to lose. Don't have more than 5-10% of your net worth in crypto.
  • Consider what level of loss you can't accept in a position with a high risk factor, and use stop-limit orders to hedge against sudden crashes. Set you stop price at about 5-10% above your lowest limit. Stop-limit orders aren't perfect but they're better than having no hedging strategy for a risky microcap in case of some meltdown. Only you can determine what bags you are unwilling to hold.
  • Diversify across sectors and rebalance your allocations periodically. Keep about 1/3rd in low risk core holdings.
  • Have some fiat in reserve at a FDIC-insured exchange (ex. Gemini), and be ready to add to your winning positions on a pullback.
  • Remember you didn't actually make any money until you take some profits, so take do some profits when everyone else is at peak FOMO-ing bubble mode. You will also sleep much more comfortably once you take out the equivalent of your principal.

Portfolio Allocation

Along with thinking about your portfolio in terms of risk categories described above, I really find it helpful to think about the segments you are in. OnChainFX has some segment categorization but I generally like to bring it down to:
  • Core holdings - essentially the Low Risk Core segment
  • Platform segment
  • Privacy segment
  • Finance/Bank settlement segment
  • Enterprise Blockchain solutions segment
  • Promising/Innovative Tech segment
This is merely what I use, but I'm sure you can think of your own. The key point I have is to try to invest your medium and high risk picks in a segment you understand well, and in which you can relatively accurately judge risk. If you don't understand anything about how banking works or SWIFT or international settlement layers, don't invest in Stellar. If you have no idea how a supply chain functions, avoid investing in VeChain (even if it's being shilled to death on Reddit at the moment just like XRB was last month).
What's interesting is that often we see like-coin movement, for example when a coin from one segment pumps we will frequently see another similar coin in the same segment go up (think Stellar following after Ripple).
Consider the historic correlations between your holdings. Generally when Bitcoin pumps, altcoins dump but at what rate depends on the coin. When Bitcoin goes sideways we tend to see pumping in altcoins, while when Bitcoin goes down, everything goes down.
You should set price targets for each of your holdings, which is a whole separate discussion I'll go in Part 2 of the guide.

Summing it up

This was meant to get you think about what return targets you should set for your portfolio and how much risk you are willing to take and what strategies you can follow to mitigate that risk.
Returns around 385% (average crypto market CAGR over the last 3 years) would be a good target to aim for while remaining realistic, you can tweak it a bit based on your own risk tolerance. What category of risk your individual crypto picks should be will be determined by how much more greed you have for above average market return. A portfolio of 50% core holdings, 30% medium risk in a sector you understand well and 20% in high risk speculative is probably what the average portfolio should look like, with newbies going more towards 70% core and only 5% high risk speculative.
Just by thinking about these things you'll likely do better than most crypto investors, because most don't think about this stuff, to their own detriment.
submitted by arsonbunny to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

Looking for a Bitcoin Wallet?

As people in the crypto space craving for global adoption, it is highly predictable that the majority of newcomers would be believers and holders of the most popular Cryptocurrency Bitcoin. This is due to the fact that, Bitcoin has shown a remarkable performance since it launch and even though the journey hasn't been comfortable and smooth. Taking into account the numerous criticisms from some government agencies and financial entities, Bitcoin keeps holding high esteem the crypto flag.
Having to choose a Bitcoin Wallet for novice seems tiring and indecisive. The truth is the best Bitcoin Wallet is relative and would depend on individual preferences, needs and purpose. However, we should take note that holding Cryptocurrencies comes with a risk. This is because your assets may decrease in value at anytime and has the possibility of increasing.
In order not to waste much time, let proceed to look at some few cool Bitcoin wallets in the market today!
Hardware Wallets In the context of security hardware wallets are by far the most secure. These are physical devices which are very easy to use and built purposely for storing Cryptocurrencies. The most popular ones in the market includes Ledger Nano X and TREZOR T. If you are security conscious, which I think most people are, then hardware wallets are what you should be looking out for as it provides a convenient and reliable means of storing Bitcoin and other cryptos.
These devices can be connected to your PCs, tablets and even phones in order to get access to your funds. They come with amazing features like, two factor authentication (2-FA), password management etc. It also makes provisions for lost passwords and devices.
Coinbase,com Coinbase is one of the most popular platforms to buy and sell Cryptocurrencies with U.S. bank account. Beside it buy and sell attributes, it offers individual and corporates a convenient way to manage and store their Bitcoin and other top cryptos like Ethereum, BitcoinCash, Litecoin etc and they plan to add others to their collection of digital assets. Users have the ability to make use of their web Wallet or alternatively, download the mobile app from respective digital stores.
As we all know, security is something which is not assured on the internet. This could be seen as a threat in reference to what happen to Mt. Gox some time back. From the past years Coinbase has done well to ensure maximum security for it users and improved user experience on their platform.
Atomic Wallet Atomic wallet is a decentralized cross-blockchain wallet that provides a custody-free, transparent, immutable cryptocurrency trading among users. It provides users with the ability to securely manage bitcoin and over 500 digital assets. Atomic wallet also now supports the purchasing of Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Litecoin and others with a credit card.
Furthermore, Atomic Wallet is multi-platform and is available on Windows, Mac OS, Linux and android. The team recently launched a membership program that will reward users with their native token (AWC) at the end of each month for using their built-in exchange services. In order to be eligible, users are required to hold a certain amount of AWC throughout the month. The amount of cash back depends on a user's membership status which is defined by the amount of AWC holdings.
Besides it useful features and intuitive interface, atomic wallet support instant cryptocurrency exchange , buy crypto with bank card and provides 24/7 customer support for it users.
Download Atomic Wallet: https://atomicwallet.io/bitcoin-wallet
Blockchain Wallet The Blockchain wallet is one of the widely used Bitcoin Wallet in the world of crypto due to its sleekness, security and low fees. The Blockchain wallet is a non-custodial wallet meaning a user is solely responsible for his/her funds. Thus, he/she holds his/her private key and has full control of their digital assets. The wallet provides a convenient way to store, send, receive and exchange specific cryptos.
Blockchain wallet at the time of publishing supports other top Cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Stellar and USD PAX. Some interesting features may include: global wallet supporting 21 languages, biometric authentication, historical price chart etc.
Content Credit Bitcointalk username: FOPL
submitted by quesi_job to CryptoICONews [link] [comments]

Musing on Money: Gold, USD, and BTC

Gold, USD, and BTC are often presented as if they are competitors, which of course in some ways they are. However, I find far more interesting and enlightening their complementary differences which illustrate the benefits that come from each and why I expect that the future will not be any one of them eliminating the others but instead a continued coexistence with overall benefit to society.
Let's consider gold first. Obviously it has the advantage of history and universality. For thousands of years humans have recognized gold as having certain uncommon properties: a rare, easily malleable, yellow metal. That doesn't seem like much, but it's been enough to make it appreciated for decorative purposes and commonly used as a trade good. Its history and rarity combine to make it an attractive long-term store of value: a person who buys a piece of gold today can be relatively confident that whoever they give it to will be able to trade it for a similar amount of goods and services in future centuries. Of course, such physical gold (as opposed to an ETF, etc) can also be stolen or lost. But if custody is maintained over the gold, it is reasonable to expect that although there will be some fluctuations in its value relative to other trade goods, it will still retain significant purchasing power.
However, there are also significant disadvantages to gold. It is no longer commonly accepted directly in trade, so it needs to be converted to a local currency and this tends to involve somewhat substantial fees, so there significant inefficiency particularly if one is only storing value for a relatively short period of time, like anything less than a decade. It's an obvious target for theft, and if one has it stored by a third party this has expense (as opposed to having one's USD stored in a bank, which is free or for which you get paid).
In the modern economy, the primary role of gold is as a backup store of value in case the daily currency gets inflated. However, due to various peculiarities of the gold market, it is not always effective in this role as smaller inflation may not be captured by an appreciating gold price due to other fluctuations in gold price or exchange fees. Thus gold tends to be more of a defense against extreme inflation than mild inflation. This is a fuzzy line though: looking at a chart of Gold in USD over the last 100 years there is massive volatility, while I expect that overall the purchasing power of the dollar has declined in a rather more straightforward fashion. ...oh, oops, I thought that seemed off: make sure to uncheck "inflation-adjusted". What we want to see is precisely the raw USD values, because we're looking to see how gold functions as a hedge against inflation.
And then the pattern becomes rather more clear: before the USD left the gold standard, even into the beginning of the 1970s, gold was less than $40 per ounce. Now it is above $1,000 per ounce. Now, USD has not faced hyperinflation like the Weimar Republic or Mugabe's Zimbabwe. But it has clearly had heavy price inflation and loss of purchasing power. Although volatile and imperfect, gold has been a useful tool for being able to store value without having its purchasing power constantly eroded by this effect.
Now, the United States dollar. I'm using this as a representative for all government issued currencies, just as I used gold as representative of all precious metals or other commodity stores of value, and for similar reasons: it is familiar and a global standard. Even outside the United States, the USD is often used in trade and is considered a 'global reserve currency'. This piece is not primarily about USD in comparison to other currencies or the reasons for its pre-eminence, but I'll just note that there are some circular reinforcing effects here: because it is seen as a strong, stable currency, this leads to increased global demand for the USD, which helps to make this strength in some ways a self-reinforcing condition (although not one which necessarily will maintain forever of course).
Proponents of gold and BTC frequently criticize the inflationary prices of USD and the erosion of value inherent to it by design and modern financial philosophy (not referring to 'MMT' but mainstream economic thought today supports having deliberate inflation and loss of value because this is claimed to be less bad than the alternative of price deflation). This is absolutely an effect which has significant and obvious downside to anyone who has value in USD. On the other hand, there can be some positive aspects to it as well from some perspectives. This has the effect of reducing the value of the principal amount of debt over time. Of course, this is compensated for by interest rates in return and so tends to be a wash overall, but it can be a helpful effect for those who owe mortgages or take out loans to purchase productive capital.
In general, this inflation is designed to encourage spending or investment and discourage idle cash. While horrible to anyone who simply wants to be able to save over time, and while it tends to exacerbate cycles of boom and bust economy, this does perhaps help overall to incentivize economic activity.
Beyond the question of value over the long-term, USD (et. al.) are obviously the most convenient unit of account for daily commerce. Whether used directly as cash, or far more commonly by bank transfer or card payment, USD is the basis of trade. There is some inertia effect here and some policy effect, but overall the system works rather well: it tends to be convenient and easy to spend USD and thus it's widely accepted. It's a common platform upon which the economy runs.
BTC is obviously still quite new and experimental and generally untrusted, for good reason. It is by no means certain it will survive the next ten years. On the other hand, it has in my view held up rather well for being so new. There hasn't been a major bug which has destroyed the system, and while the price has obviously been extremely volatile, over the course of years it has so far managed to come out of each bubble with a somewhat higher base than it went into it with. For years BTC did not exceed the ~$1,000 2013 peak of Mt. Gox (based on manipulation and fraud), but then in the 2017 / 2018 bubble it finally did. Now, while far below the $20,000 peak of early 2018, BTC is still well above the <$1,000 it was for years.
Nonetheless, this is quite obviously not something to stake the entire proverbial farm upon. Even if cryptocurrency is dominant 100 years from not, it is not obvious that BTC or necessarily any of the current contenders will still even exist much less have maintained their current purchasing power.
This is an interesting trial of a different system, one which combined the "from nothingness" of USD and its digital transfers with the concept of limited quantities like gold as well as its statelessness (although both of these last are somewhat chimeras: obviously there can be unlimited varieties of crypto so the scarcity is artificial and despite the claims of being leaderless crypto does in fact ultimately have decisions made by people and accepted or not by communities).
Clearly there is far greater volatility in BTC than in USD or gold. On the other hand, it has the potential to grow more than either do: gold has saturated the world and while it's unlikely to lose significant value it's hard for it to gain in purchasing power either. Similarly USD in total has little more to gain, and individual dollars of course are essentially guaranteed to lose value. So there is a lottery nature to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency, which is as well part of what has given them an unsavory reputation due to the "get-rich-quick" style of promotion that inherently is incentivized for holders.
I tend to view crypto as essentially a speculative novelty: when there is a ton of money floating around, then people will throw it at silly things like sports cars, or stock in companies which will never turn a profit, or cryptocurrencies. Conversely, if people are struggling to survive I find it hard to believe they will put confidence in magical internet money and instead I would tend to expect the price to fall as people who hold the coins try to convert it to currencies which can be used to buy food or pay rent (and many of the systems which on the surface would seem to be ways to do this in BTC are actually just convenient ways to wrap the conversion to USD).
This is why I view Bitcoin not as a hedge against economic collapse, but instead the ultimate bet on economic success leading into more and more of a "post-scarcity" world where people's basic needs are relatively easily met while competition is for status and luxuries.
In such a world, I think NYAN also can find a place, as I think we've got a charming meme. While we are certainly tiny and would need to ultimately grow more in order to be more broadly successful, we have demonstrated strength by merely surviving, and we have along the way also managed to slightly outperform relative to BTC (going from 1-3 satoshi to ~9 satoshi lately) as well as USD, carrying on from the rise BTC has had.
The inherent silliness of a coin based on the nyancat is useful in my opinion for helping to illustrate the view I have of cryptocurrency overall: that it's important to make it clear this is not a safe haven, but instead ridiculously silly gambling. That said, I do believe it's still possible for NYAN to have a serious and positive effect economically.
Conceptually, my view of it has been that money would flow into NYAN from those who essentially are donating it for fun (this has been my motivation and view of my purchases: I bought in originally in part to be able to say I was a "millionaire" in something ('nillionaire' in this case) and in part to motivate myself to continue with the coin), while those who are selling and receiving the money inherently have a greater need for it (since those who are buying should be those who have no need of the money, then those who are selling and presumably have some need for it obviously have the greater need). Thus it is a redistribution of wealth which should produce greater overall utility, and further, it is a purely voluntary and honest redistribution and therefore does not have the ethical problems of forced or fraudulent redistribution.
Further, I believe it should also be possible in theory for this to create additional wealth: if one person has extra money and doesn't see anything useful to do with it, they can 'throw it away' buying NYAN. Another person selling NYAN may see an opportunity for investment and use the proceeds to do so. If these investments tend to create value, then these exchanges create value. And if the investor later tosses some money back into buying NYAN, it may cause the cycle to continue.
Now, I want to make it clear this is my wishful thinking about how I would like NYAN to develop if it's successful. It's not a projection that this is in any way likely. Far more likely is we get bored and wander off and NYAN dies. Or we are foolish and wasteful with the proceeds we may someday get from selling our NYAN and the capital is wasted and NYAN dies. etc. There are far more ways for this to fail than to succeed.
But I like to imagine that if we build a wise community, that this fun money could actually be a way of efficiently reallocating excess capital among ourselves, and that if we are wise stewards of the capital we are entrusted with, that we may grow our wealth to the benefit of all, Nekonauts as well as everyone else.
It starts with a foundation of honesty and humility. This is why it's been so important to me for us to make it clear how improbable our success or even survival is, and to focus more on discouraging unwise gambling than on trying to attract buyers. We must be far-sighted and mindful of how to build a solid foundation for our own lives, and then on how we can serve others, instead of looking for short-term advantages.
Of course...talk is cheap, and I'm currently using the funds I got from Raiblocks / Nano for rather reckless gambling. But I did first make sure to pay off my debts, and I have just recently proudly, albeit painfully, paid my taxes on my windfalls. And while I'm gambling on the failure of Tesla, I do so justifying myself that I believe the actions of Musk and the company are dishonest and thus deserve failure, rather than that I am the caricature presented by bulls of an opportunistic liar trying to destroy something great. The bottom line for me is that my success or failure depends upon the accuracy of my judgement. While I may fail, I've been given an opportunity I may well never have otherwise had, and it has been due to the willingness of others to gamble on buying cryptocurrency. I've wasted plenty of money, but my goal overall is to be wise and multiply the capital I have, certainly to my own benefit first, but hopefully also to the benefit of others ultimately as well.
Such is life. We all have our cross to bear, but I hope we all also get some opportunities along the way too.
Never give up; never surrender!
submitted by coinaday to nyancoins [link] [comments]

Best Bitcoin Wallet

As people in the crypto space craving for global adoption, it is highly predictable that the majority of newcomers would be believers and holders of the most popular Cryptocurrency Bitcoin. This is due to the fact that, Bitcoin has shown a remarkable performance since it launch and even though the journey hasn't been comfortable and smooth. Taking into account the numerous criticisms from some government agencies and financial entities, Bitcoin keeps holding high esteem the crypto flag.
Having to choose a Bitcoin Wallet for novice seems tiring and indecisive. The truth is the best Bitcoin Wallet is relative and would depend on individual preferences, needs and purpose. However, we should take note that holding Cryptocurrencies comes with a risk. This is because your assets may decrease in value at anytime and has the possibility of increasing.
In order not to waste much time, let proceed to look at some few cool Bitcoin wallets in the market today!
Hardware Wallets In the context of security hardware wallets are by far the most secure. These are physical devices which are very easy to use and built purposely for storing Cryptocurrencies. The most popular ones in the market includes Ledger Nano X and TREZOR T. If you are security conscious, which I think most people are, then hardware wallets are what you should be looking out for as it provides a convenient and reliable means of storing Bitcoin and other cryptos.
These devices can be connected to your PCs, tablets and even phones in order to get access to your funds. They come with amazing features like, two factor authentication (2-FA), password management etc. It also makes provisions for lost passwords and devices.
Coinbase.com Coinbase is one of the most popular platforms to buy and sell Cryptocurrencies with U.S. bank account. Beside it buy and sell attributes, it offers individual and corporates a convenient way to manage and store their Bitcoin and other top cryptos like Ethereum, BitcoinCash, Litecoin etc and they plan to add others to their collection of digital assets. Users have the ability to make use of their web Wallet or alternatively, download the mobile app from respective digital stores.
As we all know, security is something which is not assured on the internet. This could be seen as a threat in reference to what happen to Mt. Gox some time back. From the past years Coinbase has done well to ensure maximum security for it users and improved user experience on their platform.
Atomic Wallet Atomic wallet is a decentralized cross-blockchain wallet that provides a custody-free, transparent, immutable cryptocurrency trading among users. It provides users with the ability to securely manage bitcoin and over 500 digital assets. Atomic wallet also now supports the purchasing of Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Litecoin and others with a credit card.
Furthermore, Atomic Wallet is multi-platform and is available on Windows, Mac OS, Linux and android. The team recently launched a membership program that will reward users with their native token (AWC) at the end of each month for using their built-in exchange services. In order to be eligible, users are required to hold a certain amount of AWC throughout the month. The amount of cash back depends on a user's membership status which is defined by the amount of AWC holdings. Besides it useful features and intuitive interface, atomic wallet support instant cryptocurrency exchange , buy crypto with bank card and provides 24/7 customer support for it users.
Download Atomic Wallet: https://atomicwallet.io/bitcoin-wallet
Blockchain Wallet The Blockchain wallet is one of the widely used Bitcoin Wallet in the world of crypto due to its sleekness, security and low fees. The Blockchain wallet is a non-custodial wallet meaning a user is solely responsible for his/her funds. Thus, he/she holds his/her private key and has full control of their digital assets. The wallet provides a convenient way to store, send, receive and exchange specific cryptos.
Blockchain wallet at the time of publishing supports other top Cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Stellar and USD PAX. Some interesting features may include: global wallet supporting 21 languages, biometric authentication, historical price chart etc.
Content Credit Bitcointalk username: FOPL
submitted by quesi_job to airdrops [link] [comments]

Core/Blockstream is *not* Bitcoin. In many ways, Core/Blockstream is actually similar to MtGox. Trusted & centralized... until they were totally exposed as incompetent & corrupt - and Bitcoin routed around the damage which they had caused.

Core/Blockstream can't/won't grow any more.
Bitcoin is growing - and the only way it can continue to grow is for Core/Blockstream to get out of the way.
Core/Blockstream doesn't have any solutions for the graphs below - but that's their problem, not Bitcoin's:
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?showDataPoints=false×pan=all&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=
https://tradeblock.com/bitcoin/historical/1w-f-txval_per_tot-01071-blksize_per_avg-01071
Just click on these historical blocksize graphs - all trending dangerously close to the 1 MB (1000KB) artificial limit. And then ask yourself: Would you hire a CTO / team whose Capacity Planning Roadmap from December 2015 officially stated: "The current capacity situation is no emergency" ?
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/3ynswc/just_click_on_these_historical_blocksize_graphs/
Core/Blockstream has no solutions to these problems - because they don't want to solve them:
Lesser known reasons why Core developers want to keep block size small, in their own words
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/473i0h/lesser_known_reasons_why_core_developers_want_to/
https://medium.com/@elliotolds/lesser-known-reasons-to-keep-blocks-small-in-the-words-of-bitcoin-core-developers-44861968185e
But Bitcoin does have solutions right now. For example, one solution is already installed and running on over a thousand nodes:
Be patient about Classic. It's already a "success" - in the sense that it has been tested, released, and deployed, with 1/6 nodes already accepting 2MB+ blocks. Now it can quietly wait in the wings, ready to be called into action on a moment's notice. And it probably will be - in 2016 (or 2017).
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/44y8ut/be_patient_about_classic_its_already_a_success_in/?ref=search_posts
So, remember to be precise in your phrasing and your thinking:
"Bitcoin" isn't dying.
"Core/Blockstream" is dying.
That's all that's happening here.
Yes it could get ugly for a while.
The death of Core/Blockstream could get as ugly as the death of MtGox.
In both cases, people trusted a centralized institution which thought that it could control Bitcoin forever.
And then that centralized institution was revealed to everybody as incompetent and corrupt and rotten to the core.
People who had placed their trust in that centralized institution got hurt bad - but the people who hadn't trusted that institution, came out fine.
If you're part of the crowd that's been complaining about Core/Blockstream for these many months - that's the same as being part of the crowd that was complaining about about MtGox for many months.
Consider yourself one of the informed. Just like the people who didn't trust MtGox, the people who don't trust Core/Blockstream will emerge unscathed after this crisis is past.
But people who trust Core/Blockstream are gonna get hurt:
The Nine Miners of China: "Core is a red herring. Miners have alternative code they can run today that will solve the problem. Choosing not to run it is their fault, and could leave them with warehouses full of expensive heating units and income paid in worthless coins." – tsontar
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/3xhejm/the_nine_miners_of_china_core_is_a_red_herring/
As long as people continue to trust Core/Blockstream, the network will start to get clogged, and the price could crash - or just stay flat, as Bitcoin's expected price rise due to the halving, collapsing fiat financial markets, NIRP (negative interest rate policy from governments and banks) etc. gets cancelled out by Core/Blockstream's stalling and incompetence.
3 months performance of Dow Jones, NASDAQ, S&P500, FTSE 100 (UK), DAX (Germany), Nikkei (Japan), Shangai Composite (China), Gold, and Bitcoin (cross-post from /BitcoinMarkets - original post by brg444)
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/45u8cf/3_months_performance_of_dow_jones_nasdaq_sp500/
Once Core/Blockstream's failure/refusal to scale causes enough damage to make the majority of people understand that Core/Blockstream is not Bitcoin - then people will wake up and reject Core/Blockstream's failure/refusal to scale.
And remember, scaling for the next few years is easy: just change a 1 to a 2 in the code. Or set it to some average or median based on the previous blocks.
BitPay's Adaptive Block Size Limit is my favorite proposal. It's easy to explain, makes it easy for the miners to see that they have ultimate control over the size (as they always have), and takes control away from the developers. – Gavin Andresen
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/40kmny/bitpays_adaptive_block_size_limit_is_my_favorite/
There are plenty of simple scaling solutions solutions like this available (Classic, BitPay's Adaptive Block Size Limit).
Core/Blockstream thinks it can dominate Bitcoin by throwing around money and lies while they ignore users' needs - and certain people appear to be gullible enough to actually trust them (e.g. Chinese miners signing meaningless loyalty statements at 3 AM at some roundtable in Hong Kong).
But Satoshi carefully designed the incentives of Bitcoin so that it will always route around that kind of centralization and corruption.
As an investor, you're the one in control. The miners only provide a commodity (timestamping of transactions), and the devs only provide code (which is open-source, so it can easily be modified to suit our needs).
Forkology 301: The Three Tiers of Investor Control over Bitcoin
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/3t4kbk/forkology_301_the_three_tiers_of_investor_control/
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=site%3Abitco.in%2Fforum+spinoff
You still have X bitcoins on the Blockchain and there isn't a damn thing Core/Blockstream or the Chinese miners can do to change that.
submitted by ydtm to btc [link] [comments]

Dr Peter R. Rizun, managing editor of the first peer-reviewed cryptocurrency journal, is an important Bitcoin researcher. He has also been attacked and censored for months by Core / Blockstream / Theymos. Now, he has now been *suspended* (from *all* subreddits) by some Reddit admin(s). Why?

Dr. Peter R. Rizun is arguably one of the most serious, prominent, and promising new voices in Bitcoin research today.
He not only launched the first scientific peer-reviewed cryptocurrency journal - he has also consistently provided high-quality, serious and insightful posts, papers and presentations on reddit (in writing, at conferences, and on YouTube) covering a wide array of important topics ranging from blocksize, scaling and decentralization to networking theory, economics, and fee markets - including:
It was of course probably to be expected that such an important emerging new Bitcoin researcher would be constantly harrassed, attacked and censored by the ancien régime of Core / Blockstream / Theymos.
But now, the attacks have risen to a new level, where some Reddit admin(s) have suspended his account Peter__R.
This means that now he can't post anywhere on reddit, and people can no longer see his reddit posts simply by clicking on his user name (although his posts - many of them massively upvoted with hundreds of upvotes - are of course still available individually, via the usual search box).
Questions:
  • What Reddit admin(s) are behind this reddit-wide banishing of Peter__R?
  • What is their real agenda, and why are they aiding and abbeting the censorship imposed by Core / Blockstream / Theymos?
  • Don't they realize that in the end they will only harm reddit.com itself, by forcing the most important new Bitcoin researchers to publish their work elsewhere?
(Some have suggested that Peter__R may have forgotten to use 'np' instead of 'www' when linking to other posts on reddit - a common error which subs like /btc will conveniently catch for the poster, allowing the post to be fixed and resubmitted. If this indeed was the actual justification of the Reddit admin(s) for banning him reddit-wide, it seems like a silly technical "gotcha" - and one which could easily have been avoided if other subs would catch this error the same way /btc does. At any rate, it certainly seems counterproductive for reddit.com to ban such a prominent and serious Bitcoin contributor.)
  • Why is reddit.com willing to risk pushing serious discussion off the site, killing its reputation as a decent place to discuss Bitcoin?
  • Haven't the people attempting to silence him ever heard of the Streisand effect?
Below are some examples of the kinds of outstanding contributions made by Peter__R, which Core / Blockstream / Theymos (and apparently some Reddit admin(s)) have been desperately trying to suppress in the Bitcoin community.
Peer-Reviewed Cryptocurrency Journal
Bitcoin Peer-Reviewed Academic Journal ‘Ledger’ Launches
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-peer-reviewed-academic-journal-ledger-launches/
Blocksize as an Emergent Phenonomen
The Size of Blocks: Policy Tool or Emergent Phenomenon? [my presentation proposal for scaling bitcoin hong kong]
https://np.reddit.com/bitcoinxt/comments/3s5507/the_size_of_blocks_policy_tool_or_emergent/
Peter R's presentation is really awesome and much needed analysis of the market for blockspace and blocksize.
https://np.reddit.com/bitcoinxt/comments/3me634/peter_rs_presentation_is_really_awesome_and_much/
In case anyone missed it, Peter__R hit the nail on the head with this: "The reason we can't agree on a compromise is because the choice is binary: the limit is either used as an anti-spam measure, or as a policy tool to control fees."
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/3xaexf/in_case_anyone_missed_it_peter_r_hit_the_nail_on/
Bigger Blocks = Higher Prices: Visualizing the 92% historical correlation [NEW ANIMATED GIF]
https://np.reddit.com/bitcoinxt/comments/3nufe7/bigger_blocks_higher_prices_visualizing_the_92/
https://np.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/3nudkn/bigger_blocks_higher_prices_visualizing_the_92/
Miners are commodity producers - Peter__R
https://np.reddit.com/bitcoinxt/comments/3l3g4f/miners_are_commodity_producers_peter_
Fees and Fee Markets
“A Transaction Fee Market Exists Without a Block Size Limit” — new research paper ascertains. [Plus earn $10 in bitcoin per typo found in manuscript]
https://np.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/3fpuld/a_transaction_fee_market_exists_without_a_block/
"A Transaction Fee Market Exists Without a Block Size Limit", Peter R at Scaling Bitcoin Montreal 2015
https://np.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/3mddr4/a_transaction_fee_market_exists_without_a_block/
An illustration of how fee revenue leads to improved network security in the absence of a block size limit.
https://np.reddit.com/bitcoinxt/comments/3qana4/an_illustration_of_how_fee_revenue_leads_to/
Greg Maxwell was wrong: Transaction fees can pay for proof-of-work security without a restrictive block size limit
https://np.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/3yod27/greg_maxwell_was_wrong_transaction_fees_can_pay/
Networks and Scaling
Bitcoin's "Metcalfe's Law" relationship between market cap and the square of the number of transactions
https://np.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/3x8ba9/bitcoins_metcalfes_law_relationship_between/
Market cap vs. daily transaction volume: is it reasonable to expect the market cap to continue to grow if there is no room for more transactions?
https://np.reddit.com/bitcoinxt/comments/3nvkn3/market_cap_vs_daily_transaction_volume_is_it/
In my opinion the most important part of Scaling Bitcoin! (Peter R)
https://np.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/3l5uh4/in_my_opinion_the_most_important_part_of_scaling/
https://np.reddit.com/bitcoinxt/comments/3l5up3/in_my_opinion_the_most_important_part_of_scaling/
Visualizing BIP101: A Payment Network for Planet Earth
https://np.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/3uvaqn/visualizing_bip101_a_payment_network_for_planet/
A Payment Network for Planet Earth: Visualizing Gavin Andresen's blocksize-limit increase
https://np.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/3ame17/a_payment_network_for_planet_earth_visualizing/
Is Bitcoin's block size "empirically different" or "technically the same" as Bitcoin's block reward? [animated GIF visualizing real blockchain data]
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/3thu1n/is_bitcoins_block_size_empirically_different_o
New blocksize BIP: User Configurable Maximum Block Size
https://np.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/3hcrmn/new_blocksize_bip_user_configurable_maximum_block/
A Block Size Limit Was Never Part Of Satoshi’s Plan : Draft proposal to move the block size limit from the consensus layer to the transport layer
https://np.reddit.com/bitcoin_uncensored/comments/3hdeqs/a_block_size_limit_was_never_part_of_satoshis/
Truth-table for the question "Will my node follow the longest chain?"
https://np.reddit.com/bitcoinxt/comments/3i5pk4/truthtable_for_the_question_will_my_node_follow/
Peter R: "In the end, I believe the production quota would fail." #ScalingBitcoin
https://np.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/3koghf/peter_r_in_the_end_i_believe_the_production_quota/
Decentralized Nodes, Mining and Development
Centralization in Bitcoin: Nodes, Mining, Development
https://np.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/3n3z9b/centralization_in_bitcoin_nodes_mining_development/
Deprecating Bitcoin Core: Visualizing the Emergence of a Nash Equilibrium for Protocol Development
https://np.reddit.com/bitcoinxt/comments/3nhq9t/deprecating_bitcoin_core_visualizing_the/
What is wrong with the goal of decentralizing development across multiple competing implementations? - Peter R
https://np.reddit.com/bitcoinxt/comments/3ijuw3/what_is_wrong_with_the_goal_of_decentralizing/
Potentially Unlimited, "Fractal-Like" Scaling for Bitcoin: Peter__R's "Subchains" proposal
"Reduce Orphaning Risk and Improve Zero-Confirmation Security With Subchains" — new research paper on 'weak blocks' explains
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/3xkok3/reduce_orphaning_risk_and_improve/
A Visual Explanation of Subchains -- an application of weak blocks to secure zero-confirmation transactions and massively scale Bitcoin
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/3y76du/a_visual_explanation_of_subchains_an_application/
New Directions in Bitcoin Development
Announcing Bitcoin Unlimited.
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/3ynoaa/announcing_bitcoin_unlimited/
"It's because most of them are NOT Bitcoin experts--and I hope the community is finally starting to recognize that" -- Peter R on specialists vs. generalists and the aptitudes of Blockstream Core developers
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/3xn110/its_because_most_of_them_are_not_bitcoin/
It is time to usher in a new phase of Bitcoin development - based not on crypto & hashing & networking (that stuff's already done), but based on clever refactorings of datastructures in pursuit of massive and perhaps unlimited new forms of scaling
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/3xpufy/it_is_time_to_usher_in_a_new_phase_of_bitcoin/
Peter__R on RBF
Peter__R on RBF: (1) Easier for scammers on Local Bitcoins (2) Merchants will be scammed, reluctant to accept Bitcoin (3) Extra work for payment processors (4) Could be the proverbial straw that broke Core's back, pushing people into XT, btcd, Unlimited and other clients that don't support RBF
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/3umat8/upeter_r_on_rbf_1_easier_for_scammers_on_local/
Peter__R on Mt. Gox
Peter R’s Theory on the Collapse of Mt. Gox
https://np.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/1zdnop/peter_rs_theory_on_the_collapse_of_mt_gox/
Censorship and Attacks by Core / Blockstream / Theymos / Reddit Admins against Peter__R
Peter__R's infographic showing the BIP 101 growth trajectory gets deleted from /bitcoin for "trolling"
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/3uy3ea/peter_rs_infographic_showing_the_bip_101_growth/
"Scaling Bitcoin" rejected Peter R's proposal
https://np.reddit.com/bitcoinxt/comments/3takbscaling_bitcoin_rejected_peter_rs_proposal/
After censoring Mike and Gavin, BlockStream makes its first move to silence Peter R on bitcoin-dev like they did on /bitcoin
https://np.reddit.com/bitcoinxt/comments/3syb0z/after_censoring_mike_and_gavin_blockstream_makes/
Looks like the censors in /bitcoin are at it again: Peter_R post taken down within minutes
https://np.reddit.com/bitcoinxt/comments/3tvb3b/looks_like_the_censors_in_rbitcoin_are_at_it/
I've been banned for vote brigading for the animated GIF that visualized the possible future deprecation of Bitcoin Core.
https://np.reddit.com/bitcoinxt/comments/3nizet/ive_been_banned_for_vote_brigading_for_the/
An example of moderator subjectivity in the interpretation of the rules at /bitcoin: animated pie chart visualizing the deprecation of Bitcoin Core
https://np.reddit.com/bitcoinxt/comments/3osthv/an_example_of_moderator_subjectivity_in_the/
"My response to Pieter Wuille on the Dev-List has once again been censored, perhaps because I spoke favourably of Bitcoin Unlimited and pointed out misunderstandings by Maxwell and Back...here it is for those who are interested" -- Peter R
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/3ybhdy/my_response_to_pieter_wuille_on_the_devlist_has/
To those who are interested in judging whether Peter R's paper merits inclusion in the blockchain scaling conference, here it is:
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/3td6b9/to_those_who_are_interested_in_judging_whethe
The real reason Peter_R talk was refused (from his previous presentation) (xpost from /btc)
https://np.reddit.com/bitcoinxt/comments/3uwpvh/the_real_reason_peter_r_talk_was_refused_from_his/
[CENSORED] The Morning After the Moderation Mistake: Thoughts on Consensus and the Longest Chain
https://np.reddit.com/bitcoin_uncensored/comments/3h8o50/censored_the_morning_after_the_moderation_mistake/
Core / Blockstream cheerleader eragmus gloating over Peter__R's account getting suspended from Reddit (ie, from all subreddits) - by some Reddit admin(s)
[PSA] Uber Troll Extraordinaire, Peter__R, has been permanently suspended by Reddit
https://np.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/407j77/psa_uber_troll_extraordinaire_upeter_r_has_been/
submitted by ydtm to btc [link] [comments]

This Sub is for TRADERS. Please go back to R/Bitcoin

This sub has turned to shit..
Out of the top 25 posts this past month only 3 of them were trading related , and if it didn't have to do with Gox it was all BULLISH NEWS.
Every bearish thread has been downvoted to hell that last month. Every "to the moon" chart gets upvoted to the moon I.E Not objective.
This is a Sub for TRADERS... not the Bitcoin circleJerk.
So you know:
http://www.reddit.com/BitcoinMarkets/wiki/rules
What belongs here
Technical analysis, indicators
Well-reasoned and clearly explained technical analyses are welcome here. Please test with historical data before posting, if possible.
Bitcoin news that has an impact on the market News items such as Bank of China's Bitcoin warning, Silk Road seizure, Mt.Gox withdrawals suspended fit right in on this subreddit. News items with less obvious impact should only be posted alongside a compelling argument as to why they may have a noticeable effect.
Insights and observations about current market conditions
Insightful comments about the current market, such as strange behavior by market actors, exceptional exchange conditions, and actionable arbitrage opportunities are appreciated. Posts in this category generally belong in the daily discussion thread unless your explanation is especially in-depth and/or time-span is greater than 24 hours.
Trading tools
This includes discussion of trading platforms, bots, live chart web sites, and any other software/applications that would be useful to a Bitcoin trader. Please check the sidebar and wiki entries to make sure the trading tool you'd like to share hasn't already been mentioned.
submitted by FixPUNK to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Log growth -vs- Crash history

So the wall street "consensus" is that we are currently in the 4th Crypto bubble since 2009. Historically, they have popped within a month of the last period of 10x growth. Not every period of 10x growth has been followed by a "pop". We are currently on our fifth 10x cycle. This is certainly not predictive, as there is almost no correlations to the "pop" events and the market at large. Most of these were just random events that collapsed the market. The good news is that they have typically recovered within 3 years of deflating. If I had to guess, I'd say the next likely stress point would be either CME volume overstressing the market, or another exchange collapse (my bet is BitFinex).
Jan 3, 2009 - 0.000 $ / BTC - No real market, just an anomaly for next 18 months Jul 18, 2010 - 0.07 $ / BTC - ATH on BitcoinMarket.com, price "stabalizes" in July. Feb 1, 2011 - 0.74 $ / BTC - first 10x increase (7 months) May 13, 2011 - 7.48 $ / BTC - second 10x increase (3 months) Mar 25, 2013 - 74.02 $ / BTC - third 10x increase (22 months) Nov 21, 2013 - 707.05 $ / BTC - fourth 10x increase (8 months) Nov 3, 2017 - 7012.53 $ / BTC - fifth 10x increase (4 years) Jun 9, 2011 - 29.58 $ / BTC - ATH (3 weeks after 2rd 10x) Jun 19, 2011 < Mt. Gox Hack Crash > Feb 21, 2013 - 29.68 $ / BTC - Recover from 2011 crash (20 months to recover) Apr 9, 2013 - 213.72 $ / BTC - ATH (2 weeks after 3rd 10x) Apr 10, 2013 < Mt. Gox Trading Failure Crash > Nov 3, 2013 - 215.62 $ / BTC - Recover from Spring 2013 crash (7 months to recover) Nov 29, 2013 - 1132.26 $ / BTC - ATH (1 week after 4th 10x) Nov 29, 2013 < Mt. Gox Trading Failure Crash > Nov 29, 2013 < China outlaws bitcoin Crash > Dec 5, 2013 < Mt. Gox Trading Failure Crash > Feb 24, 2013 < Mt. Gox Closes Crash > Feb 23, 2017 - 1145.58 $ / BTC - Recover from Fall 2013 crash (39 months to recover) 
Source: https://99bitcoins.com/price-chart-history/
Update: Noted that not every 10x has a pop
submitted by brianddk to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

Estimating DPR's income after expenses & exchange rate

The FBI indictment states that SDPR earned ฿614,305 in commissions. It's been suggested that the expense of running SR, and the large changes in the exchange rate, may substantially reduce how many bitcoins DPR actually could have saved up, possibly to as low as ฿"150-200k". (The logic here is that if SR earns commissions of ฿100 in 2011 but needs to pay $100 of hosting bills, it needs to sell all ฿100 but in 2013, it would need to sell only ฿1.)
DPR surely spent some of the commissions on running SR & himself, but running a website isn't that expensive, and how badly the exchange rate bites will depend on details like how it fluctuated over time, how sales grew over time, and how big the expenses really are. The reduction could be tiny, or it could be huge. It's hard to tell based just on a gut estimate.
So: below, I take estimates of SR growth from Christin 2013's crawl and the FBI indictment, infer linear growth of SR sales, estimate daily expenses, and combine it with historical Bitcoin exchange rates to show that DPR probably has most of his bitcoins and 200k or lower is right out.

Model

My strategy is to model Silk Road's growth as linear in dollar amounts, but with different amounts of bitcoins each day depending on the exchange rate, subtract a daily operating cost, and then sum the commissions.
So say that on 1 January 2012, SR did $10k of business, and the exchange rate was 1:100, so ฿100 in turnover, and SR gets an average commission of 7.4%, so it would get ฿7.4.
To do this, I need to estimate the revenue each day, the expenses each day, the commission each day, and the exchange rate each day. Then I can multiply revenue by commission, subtract the expense, and sum the left overs to get an estimate of the total bitcoins available to DPR which he could (or could not) have spent.

Expenses

  1. Employees: we know that Libertas and one or two others were employed at salaries of $1-2k per week. I'll assume there were 2 others, and each was paid the max of $2k per week, which means total daily employee expenses is (2 * 2000) / 7 = $571 per day. (Unfortunately, the indictment doesn't give any clear indication of their numbers, just referring to them as 'they'.)
    This is a conservative estimate since I'm pretty sure that SR was a one-man operation until probably in 2012.
  2. The servers: we know there were at least 2 servers (the main site, and the forums). The task of hosting the sites does not seem to be too bandwidth or disk-space intensive, and servers are extremely cheap these days. The use of DataClub.biz and GigaTux suggest DPR was using cheap VPSes. I'll estimate a monthly expense of $500 ($250 a piece) which per day is $16.
    This is also very conservative.
  3. DPR: his rent of $1000/month has been widely bruited about, and in general he reportedly spent little. Makes sense to me, I've met and seen the rooms of a few well-paid geeks in SF like DPR, and I would believe them if they said they didn't spend much money on anything but rent & food. I'll bump this up by $1000 for food and all expenses, since he apparently didn't even eat out very much. So $2000/31=$65.
    Doubling his rent for total expenses is probably also conservative; for most people, rent is not >50% of income, but SF is incredibly expensive to live in.
This gives a daily expense of $652 (or a monthly total of $19.1k in expenses). As you can see, the employees are by far the most expensive part of running SR in my estimate, which makes me wonder if maybe Libertas was the only employee.

Hitmen

Assuming the details about DPR hiring hitmen in the indictments are reasonably accurate, we can throw in two large expenses:
  1. an $80k expenditure for killing his Maryland employee. The first payment of $40k was made on 4 February 2013 and the second/final payment of $40k was made on 1 March 2013 (pg9). If we use the exchange rate of those two days, then the hit cost DPR (40000 / 20.42) + (40000 / 34.24) = ฿3127
  2. the second hit was priced in bitcoins (pg23):
    Through further messages exchanged on March 31, 2013, DPR and redandwhite agreed upon a price of 1,670 Bitcoins
So the hits cost DPR somewhere around ฿4797. An extremely large and painful amount, by most standards, but still nowhere near ฿10k - much less higher.

Revenue over time: first and last days

Christin:
Table 3 provides a breakdown of the feedback ratings from 184,804 feedback instances we collected...In Figure 12, we plot an estimate of the daily commissions collected by Silk Road operators as a function of time. We simply reuse the previous estimates, and apply both the fixed 6.23% rate, and the schedule of Table 4 to each item. We find that the new schedule turns out to yield on average a commission corresponding to approximately 7.4% of the item price.
The FBI:
From February 6, 2011 to July 23, 2013 there were approximately 1,229,465 transactions completed on the site...$79.8 million (USD) in commissions.
According to Bitcoin Charts, on 23 July 2013, the MtGox price was $91. (As the most famous exchange, any FBI estimate almost certainly used it.) So that implies $79,800,000/91=฿876,923. Or to put it the other way, at $79.8m in transactions, then using Christin's 7.4% estimate, total sales were $1,078,000,000 or ฿10,780,000.
Wikipedia says "These transactions involved 146,946 unique buyer accounts, and 3,877 unique vendor accounts.", and "The total revenue generated from transactions was 9,519,664 bitcoins. Commissions collected from the sales by Silk Road amounted to 614,305 bitcoins."
(So the numbers aren't too different: 614k vs 876k and 10.8m vs 9.5m.)
We'll set 6 February 2011 to $10 in sales (probably not too far from the truth). But what about 23 July 2013? pg20 of the indictment says:
For example, on July 21, 2013 alone, DPR received approximately 3,237 separate transfers of Bitcoins into his account, totaling approximately $19,459. Virtually all of these transactions are labeled "commission".
19459 / 0.074 = $262,959 that day. $20k in commissions is extremely impressive, since Christin estimates only $4k/day commissions as late as the end of July 2012 - so SR must have grown by 500% from 2012 to 2013. We use this revenue estimate as our endpoint and interpolate from $10 to $262,959 over the ~900 days SR existed. This is a conservative way of modeling SR, since the graphs in Christin indicate that SR saw sigmoid growth in 2012, and 2013 would've seen even more growth (to be consistent with the 2013 July commission datapoint being 5x the 2012 July commission datapoint).

Exchange rate

I grab weighted price for each day between 6 February 2011 & 23 July 2013, and stuff it in a CSV.

Analysis

R> sr <- read.csv("http://dl.dropboxusercontent.com182368464/dpr-exchangerate.csv") R> sr$Sales <- c(10, rep(NA, 890), 262959, NA, NA) R> # revenue increased by $300 a day: R> l <- lm(Sales ~ as.numeric(Date), data=sr); l Coefficients: (Intercept) as.numeric(Date) -285 295 R> sr$Sales <- predict(l, newdata=sr) R> sum(with(sr, (Sales * 0.074 - 652) / ExchangeRate)) [1] 803397 
Or we can run the estimate the other way: if DPR had to spend $652 a day and converted at that day's exchange rate, and we took into account the hitmen, how many bitcoins would he have spent in total?
R> sum(with(sr, 652 / ExchangeRate)) [1] 127154 R> (614305 - 127154) - 4797 [1] 482354 

Conclusion

Obviously ฿803k > ฿614k, which implies that the linear model overestimates sales in the early life of SR; but going the other direction and estimating just from costs & hitmen & total commission, we still wind up with nearly ฿500k (and that was after making a bunch of highly conservative assumptions). The fewer sales (and commissions) early on, the less of a fixed number of bitcoins will be sold. So, while it may initially sound plausible that DPR could have been forced to part with say ฿400k to pay for SR and sundry expenses, the distribution of sales and fluctuations of Bitcoin value mean that this simply does not seem to be the case.
Unless there are some abandoned yachts floating around the SF Bay Area, DPRoss Ulbricht probably has ฿500k-614k.
submitted by gwern to SilkRoad [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Trading Intelligence

Hope all is well guys. Thank you for the feedback on our last Bitcoin Trading Intelligence newsletter. Hope this one addresses some of those points.
Feedback and any other comments are welcome.
If you like this and want more, you can now reserve your spot in our Bitcoin Trading Intelligence platform.
Note on the Flash Crash:
On August 18th the Bitcoin market experienced a flash crash on a number of exchanges, led by Bitfinex. It appears, according to swap data there was a number of large positions which closed in tandem causing a whipsaw effect, accelerated by market panic. Thankfully it does appear this was an isolated issue, and not a fundamental break down of the market. The price touched $160s on Bitfinex, and has since recovered to the $230 region, signaling this may have been entirely a result of an issue with an exchange or exchanges. We’ll know more in the coming days, but at this time we believe this to be the case. We’ve selected Bitstamp for our charts, as it did not have as drastic a reaction which can affect technical analysis.
Fundamental Analysis:
The entire setup of the market is clouded with bearish sentiment amplified the impacts of the BitLicense and the news of the first Bitcoin-XT Block being mined. Here is a review of what has happened fundamentally in the market over the past week and a half. On a global scale, the acceptance of Bitcoin in many countries has been on the rise as weaker economies are evidently turning to cryptocurrencies as their exit option, indicated by the increase in the trading volumes of Latin American Countries. The high inflation rate and unstable economy in countries like Argentina and Brazil have caused a massive surge in the trading volumes of Bitcoins in Latin America increasing more than 120%. This might be a reverberation from the increased number of newly registered users in Greece over the past few weeks which increased by 600%. In Europe, despite Germany’s recent negative press about Greek bailout, Berlin remains one of the major attractions for Venture Capitalists, with Bitcoin Startups and the overall ecosystem continuing to prosper. With more than $2.2 Billion invested in startups in Germany and a considerable percentage of them being Bitcoin startups, the future of cryptocurrency in Germany looks promising.
The surprise “one off depreciation” of the Yuan by the People’s Bank of China early in the week led to price divergences and limited bull runs in USD and CNY exchanges as people invested with Yuan saw the Bitcoin market as a good hedging opportunity. Adding to the already strengthening sentiment of growing Venture Capital investments in bitcoin, Japanese exchange ‘bitFlyer’ was able to raise $4 million for their next round of funding, despite the ripples caused by the arrest of Mark Karpeles, former CEO of Mt Gox earlier this month. Bitcoin got a boost from more traditional finance firm PricewaterhouseCooper’s which promoted the use of Bitcoin and Blockchain Technologies for its clients. The report stated categorically that Cryptocurrencies open the door for revolutionary technological possibilities and would disrupt the existing financial Industry in a positive way. With things going awry after the BitLicense debacle, the long awaited Gemini Exchange is a ray of hope for the residents of New York with the Winklevoss twins filing the paperwork for operating an exchange in New York in accordance with the new policies.
Edward Snowden’s statements about bitcoin, particularly saying that the technology is inherently flawed citing the ‘51 % mining attack’ as a structural weakness problem created negative sentiment in mainstream press. On the positive side, he added that the basic principles of systems based on decentralized tokenization models might continually provide more value to society. In the midst of the negative mainstream sentiment Bitcoin XT released their completed version of the software on the 15th of August. Unfortunately, many mainstream articles surfaced calling the first Bitcoin-XT block meaning Bitcoin has forked. On one hand it is a vote for the change in protocol, but the network, almost exclusively, continue to run on the core implementation. Predictions say the full switch could happen mid-2016, but the exaggerated news has had a short term impact on the mainstream perception of Bitcoin and potentially the market.
While things were already looking tight because of BitLicense, The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), has issued a new ruling stating startups seeking to tokenize commodities for Blockchain based trading have to be licensed in all the 50 states. On the heels of new regulation, SABR, a New York Based startup has just raised one million dollars to fulfill its goal of providing law enforcement with a view beneath the surface of multiple block chains. SABR aims to detect and prevent bitcoin and other digital currencies being used for illicit purposes. How these developments in regulation and security will help or harm the bitcoin community will be seen in due time.
Technical Analysis:
Long Term:
On a weekly scale, the market has been predominantly sideways with choppy moves from 255-271, until finally completing the bearish arc of the sideways swing by breaking the support zone around 250 and trading at 220 levels. The Bollinger bands in the weekly chart still remain parallel showing that the market is in the expected zone and judging by the regression lines, is setting up for a bull trend after consolidation. On a long term scale, taking a position right now for a long term trade would be premature as the sentiment in the market is not clear. The RSI is approaching the oversold region while the MACD just took a bearish turn without crossing the zero line. The proper indication for setting up long term trades would be reading the setup of the market in terms of 5 SMA and Bollinger bands. As soon as both Bollinger Bands and the 5 SMA become trending in the upward direction after significant consolidation, entering into trades with a long term plan is more justified. Proper entry points for such trades would be around the 217 region with stops below 214. If the market is trending, possible exit points could be 255, 271 and 317.
If the market breaks to the downside, breaking the support zone at 217, weekly lower Bollinger band and previous swing lows are possible targets.
Midterm:
If we look at the daily chart, the break of the zone of support around 250-255 signaled move in the market that has the run the price down to 221. The reversal was very quick with less volume, showing that the 217-220 zone is a good support zone which can be tested soon because of the still trending bearish setup in the daily chart. With the Bollinger bands and SMA’s pointing downwards, the setup is going to remain bearish for some time until a base of consolidation is formed. The descending triangle as shown in the daily chart between the downward trendline and support line at 217 might result in higher volumes being traded in the coming days. In which direction the break out would be or the setup would change will depend on how the market approaches the vertex of the triangle. The MACD is showing a bearish signal in the short term and the RSI crossed 30 into the oversold region but is now coming close to leaving the oversold region. In the medium term, it appears that it is going to be bearish/sideways for some time.
A trade setup shorting at the 5 SMA cross and looking for positions on the retracements was a good opportunity during the sell off.
Short term:
The market crashed by a huge percentage on Tuesday when the trading price of Bitcoin dropping to the 160s on some exchanges, although Bitstamp did not have as severe a reaction. Though it was immediately backed by a green retracement candle, the sentiment is predominantly bearish even in the 240 minute chart with little corrections. The market is expected to trade in this range for some time before either consolidating and going for a reversal or crashing down further. Some of the good trades in this range would be picking longs on the support level until the market closes in on the triangle as shown on the daily chart. Shorting around the lower Bollinger band, and 5 SMA with expectation of a crash down back to the 217 levels could also be profitable, although these trades have to be done with a tight stop loss.
Sentiment Analysis:
The overall sentiment of the market has continued bearish with BitLicense and “Bitcoin Forking” leading the way. However, the sentiment on the banking front is picking up speed with Visa deploying a block chain research team on the 12th August in Bangalore to study the possible applications of the Blockchain. Deutsche Bank has recently backed Blockchain Technology and bitcoins by making some positive statements about how bitcoins hold the key for the future of financial services. Another positive enforcer to the sentiment is Blockchain.info has exceeded 4 million users. With companies like BitX and ecoins making payment through bitcoins via debit cards infrastructure possible, further research to adapt bitcoin to the existing financial system and other applications seems more likely. Continued adoption by European merchants and an Indonesian crowd funding platform accepting bitcoins, gives hope that bitcoin is slowly gaining a grip on the traditional financial world. It’s still unsure about how the forking news will affect the price of Bitcoin. Major exchanges like Bitfinex have said the major exchanges will come together in agreement if a major shift happens, as there main concern is supporting as many customers as possible.
Developments in Blockchain:
The Blockchain is may play a key role in the Music Industry. Revelator builds software that allows artists and record labels to manage, track and market their music all from one application. The company sees the blockchain as an opportunity to simplify music rights, which remain complicated and difficult to verify, with a new Intellectual Property (IP) management system that will allow artists to register their works on an immutable ledger. They have partnered with Colu for this project.
On another front, ItBit has revealed details about the Bankchain project, a private consensus based ledger system aimed at providing enterprise financial solutions. With this, the New York based exchange has joined other Blockchain firms which are trying to seek the attention of banks that want to utilize the efficiencies of distributed Blockchain technology with private blockchains.
Technocorner:
The past week and a half has majorly been a week of innovation where ‘ecoin’ and ‘BitX’ have launched Hybrid debit cards. These debit cards are aimed to facilitate interchangeable payments in bitcoins or fiat currencies. ecoin plans to merge the bitcoin infrastructure with the existing financial climate, by taking a widely accepted form of payment like debit cards and combining it with Bitcoin to create a new Hybrid Cryptocurrency debit card. BitX is working on technology so users can also spend bitcoin offline without any internet connection. BitX and ZAZOO have announced this partnership that enable BitX users to use VCpay which works as an alternative for plastic cards.
Another interesting development is the BitcoinAlert Project, with the BitcoinAlert app that analyzes the prices historically and alerts about prices to buy or sell bitcoins. But the Technological development that trumped everything else this week would have to be ‘Filament’. Filament has raised $5 million in series A funding led by Bullpen capital, Verizon Ventures and Samsung Ventures. Filament is a decentralized IoT software stack that uses the bitcoin blockchain to enable devices to hold unique identities on a public ledger. By creating a smart device directory, Filament's IoT devices will be able to securely communicate, execute smart contracts and send microtransactions.
Article with the charts can be found here: http://www.benzinga.com/news/15/08/5779058/bitcoin-flash-crashed-this-week
submitted by blockstreet_ceo to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

[Graph] Krugman's "Bitcoin is not a stable store of value" debunked.

I decided to utilize historic values to examine Krugman's statement:
To be successful, money must be both a medium of exchange and a reasonably stable store of value. And it remains completely unclear why BitCoin should be a stable store of value.
No one will deny that Bitcoin is currently extremely volatile. This is not an examination of that point. This is focused purely on the question of whether, historically, Bitcoin has proven to be a good store of value. No one can predict the future, so the best we have is historical data.
This is particularly of interest to me, give the recent tumble in Bitcoin price, as well as recent reports of the third worst collapse of the dollar in the past decade.
Methodology
To examine the quality of Store of Value, I examined the historical prices of seven different assets. I envisioned a buyer of the asset purchasing it on a given day, and holding it for some length of time (X), ranging between one day and about 3.5 years (which is all the data we have for Bitcoin).
The measurement is this: if you choose a random day to buy the asset, and you buy it at the mid-point price that day, and hold it for X days, what is the probability that it will still have 100% of its value after X days. It seems like a reasonable assumption is that an asset that is a good store of value would perform well in this scenario, and retain 100% of its value a high percentage of the time.
The seven assets were:
  1. Bitcoin purchased on Bitstamp. Data provided by BitcoinCharts.
  2. Bitcoin purchased on Mt. Gox. Data provided by BitcoinCharts.
  3. Bitcoin Freely Exchangeable: For this measurement, I used Mt. Gox prices as mentioned above, until May 13, 2013 (the day before the US Government seized funds), and Bitstamp prices since then. This is an attempt to eliminate the odd pricing on Mt. Gox due to the withdrawal challenges.
  4. The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index, data provided by Google Finance. The data for this index was available going back to 4/18/2011. It's an index of the dollar, presumably comparing to other currencies. (This may be mislabeled, calling it a fund. Not sure.)
  5. Spider Gold Shares GLD, an ETF for Gold. Data provided by Yahoo Finance. This data goes back to 11/18/2004.
  6. Spider Gold Shares GLD, for the period that Bitcoin has been traded. Same data source as #5, but a subset of the data.
  7. The US Dollar (1914-2013), reflecting the US monthly inflation rates. This data was provided by usInflationCalculator.com.
In all cases, I used the average of the daily high and the daily low, when available. In the case of the Dollar (1914-2013), I used monthly inflation rates.
In all cases, I set the purchase date to one of the days that the asset was traded. In the case of the Dollar (1914-2013), I utilized the first of the month. And I set the ending valuation date as the next time the asset traded, after X days elapsed. In the case of the Dollar (1914-2013), this would be the first of some future month, after X days had passed.
Results
Here's the Graph.
The best performing asset was buying Bitcoins on Bitstamp. In all cases historically, if you held the asset for 274 days, the asset was still worth 100% of your original investment.
Mt. Gox and the Freely Exchangeable Bitcoin measurements were similar: After 622 days, 100% of the time, your original invested value was retained.
The Dollar fund (index, actually) underperformed all Bitcoin options, when measuring periods less than 243 days. But for periods of between 471 days and 1033 days, 100% of the time, the dollar fund retained its complete value. (No data for periods longer than 1033 days).
The Gold ETF underperformed Bitcoin, whether you looked at the period of Bitcoin being on the market, or the life of the ETF.
And, no surprise, the dollar as measured by inflation, came in dead last. In the past 100 years, it has only retained its value month-over-month about 15% of the time. And the longer you held it, generally, the worse off you were.
All data is available at the sources above, and the computations are available.
The graph of the results is licensed for you to use widely with attribution.
I hope this helps when you are talking to the Krugmans of the world.
(Edit: it's -> its)
submitted by E-GovLink to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Introducing CryptocoinTicker, a desktop application for Cryptocoin exchanges

After seeing this post about a physical desktop ticker for cryptocurrencies, and seeing that a lot of the requests in that post were for software, not hardware, (and since it's not in direct competition), I decided to post about the program I wrote last weekend.
CryptocoinTicker is a Windows application for showing Cryptocurrency market data, it currently has a candle chart (draggable and scrollable), a Depth chart, automatically updates data from the APIs of exchanges and new exchanges can be easily added as plugins.
Download
Source Code
Screenshot
It currently supports MtGox, BTCe, Kraken, Bitstamp and Vircurex, and for those sites it should support all available currency pairs.
Historical data is saved locally, but due to restrictions in some of the APIs its history data doesn't go too far back on first start.
I first posted about it on the Litecoin subreddit 2 days ago.
I hope it helps some of you guys :)
submitted by Panaetius to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

"Bitcoin 2.0 - How Litecoin is Looking to Cash in on Crypto-Currency Popularity" - International Business Times

It wouldn't let my link the article since International Business Times is apparently banned from Reddit. I copied and pasted it for you.
" By Alistair Charlton | November 25, 2013 4:02 AM PST
Bitcoin isn't the only decentralised currency in town; litecoin is built on similar technology and is considerably cheaper - but is increasing in value just as fast. Alistair Charlton investigates.
Worth much less than bitcoin, but growing at a faster rate, popularity in litecoin is increasing. (RadioMundial)Worth much less than bitcoin, but growing just as fast, popularity in litecoin is increasing. (RadioMundial)
Bitcoin's surging value has made the crypto-currency incredibly appealing to those looking to make a quick buck. But widespread media coverage associating the currency with everything from pizza to space flights has driven its price up, putting purchasing even a single coin out of reach for many.
Thankfully for those looking to get involved in the area there are a number of alternative digital currencies into which 'real world' money like pounds and dollars can be exchanged - either to pay for goods, or in the hope that they too will see enormous gains in value, as bitcoin has this year.
While professional investors and economics experts will tell you to avoid bitcoin trading like the plague, the temptation to recreate a Norwegian man's good fortune of turning £15 of bitcoins into £550,000 in four years may prove too tempting for some to turn down.
The most prominent alternative is litecoin, a currency based on the same protocols as bitcoin and introduced by former Google engineer Charlie Lee in 2009.
What's the difference between bitcoin and litecoin?
The main difference between bitcoin and litecoin is the speed at which it can be mined. A block of 50 litecoins is mined by a combined network of miners every 2.5 minutes, whereas the same number of bitcoins takes ten minutes to extract.
Apart from the speed of mining, this also makes litecoin transactions faster, meaning payments for goods or services can be cleared faster than those made by bitcoin - an obvious benefit for retailers.
Another difference is in the total number of coins produced. Litecoin mining will eventually create 84 million coins - four times as many as bitcoin.
Although in theory this suggests litecoin is the cheaper, more plentiful silver to bitcoin's rare and expensive gold, since both coins can be divided into tiny fractions, a comparison to real world commodities is difficult to make.
One litecoin is currently worth around £6.27 according to LitecoinRates.com - significantly cheaper than bitcoin, which was worth £510 at the time of publication.
But where bitcoin has led, litecoin looks set to follow - the currency spiked in April just as bitcoin did and crashed in a similar way, before seeing huge gains through November. As bitcoin surged towards the $1,000 mark, litecoin grew at an equally fast rate, up from $0.05 at the start of the year, to a height of more than $10 by mid-November. Litcoin may only be returning small profits for now, but remember that bitcoin was worth less than $1 just a couple of years ago. Graph showing value of litecoin in US dollars since January. (LTC-charts.com) Graph showing value of litecoin in US dollars since January. (LTC-charts.com)
Why buy litecoins?
Other than amateur traders looking to turn a quick profit, many believe litecoin's growing value is being caused by investors looking to spread their funds across multiple crypto-currencies to protect themselves from bitcoin's volatility.
Richard Boase of crypto-currency website CoinDesk suggests the increase in value could be "investors trying to diversify their crypto-currency portfolios in an attempt to protect themselves from what many view as an inevitable crash after an historic high."
Boase adds that litecoin's sudden spike "may be coming on as investors and traders new to the crypto-currency scene discover a plethora of exotic financial instruments, or it may be the collective voices of the crypto-currency hardcore who lend their support to litecoin for ideological and technical reasons."
How do I buy litecoins?
Major exchanges like Tokyo-based Mt Gox are yet to embrace litecoin on the same scale as bitcoin, which can even be withdrawn from special ATMs. Mt Gox said in August it was working on introducing litecoin to its trading platform, but it is yet to do so.
Right now, the easiest way to buy litecoins is through litecoinlocal.org, which lists sellers who are local to you. IBTimes UK found three sellers in London looking to sell between £1 and £2,000 worth of litecoins for between £7.79 and £10.18 per coin.
Due to the lack of participation from the major exchanges, litecoins are more difficult to come by, with most exchanges running out as soon as the currency is made available, but those who have invested believe anyone interested in the currency should be patient and keep trying while the price is still low.
No one knows what will happen to litecoin - in theory it should be no more stable than bitcoin, and many investors will likely get burnt - but as the US and European countries continue to investigate and accept these crypto-currencies, it is unlikely they will disappear any time soon."
submitted by _r_CryptoMarkets to litecoin [link] [comments]

3 likely scenarios of what happened to YOU on "WTF Wednesday", April 10th 2013

Share yours and up-vote additional stories for prosperity!
A. You finally bought into this crazy thing called Bitcoin THIS WEEK with your first purchases of coins. Today, you decide to be safe with your investment and send your new Bitcoins to your personal wallet. Then, while waiting for the network to confirm the transfer the bottom falls out of the market. And by the time your transfer confirms and your new coins arrive to your wallet they are now worth ½ the value you paid for them. You fall into the “I lost my shorts” Category. Your value is between 0% to -100%. No gains for you!
B. You’re an early adopter with around 2 years of Bitcoin under your belt. You’ve ridden this coaster before. You benefit from chart watching and the quirks of a volatile market like Bitcoin (or Litecoin). You keep the majority of your coins (75% to 95%) in cold storage because you bought them when pizzas cost 10,000 BTC. So you were only “playing” with a small percentage today. And experience with 3 month old Bitcoin traders is their trades ride on emotions, so crashes happen regularly… and will continue to. When the crash got going initially you put orders in $10-$20 bucks below price to catch the sellers but you also got caught in this Historic crash. Today even you were like WTF? However, because you weren't leveraged high you fall into the “Come to Papa” Category. Your value is between 100% to 0%. Some gains for you!
and 3. You got an email from Mt.Gox today around 19:00:00 Japan Standard Time that says, “Congratulations, your account has been verified!” You’re not sure if you’re still mad at Mt.Gox for taking so long, not sure if your still mad at not being a Bitcoin early adopter or just now realizing you are one lucky SOB. You fall into the “I hate Gox and I gonna DDoS 'em to I love Gox and here’s a donation!” Your value is 0%...ALL ABOARD! Potential gains in the future for you if you don’t screw it up.
Share yours and up-vote additional stories for prosperity!
submitted by sexystick to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

"Bitcoin 2.0 - How Litecoin is Looking to Cash in on Crypto-Currency Popularity" - International Business Times (LTC crosses $10.50 on BTC-E)

It wouldn't let my link the article since International Business Times is apparently banned from Reddit. I copied and pasted it for you.
" By Alistair Charlton | November 25, 2013 4:02 AM PST
Bitcoin isn't the only decentralised currency in town; litecoin is built on similar technology and is considerably cheaper - but is increasing in value just as fast. Alistair Charlton investigates.
Worth much less than bitcoin, but growing at a faster rate, popularity in litecoin is increasing. (RadioMundial)Worth much less than bitcoin, but growing just as fast, popularity in litecoin is increasing. (RadioMundial)
Bitcoin's surging value has made the crypto-currency incredibly appealing to those looking to make a quick buck. But widespread media coverage associating the currency with everything from pizza to space flights has driven its price up, putting purchasing even a single coin out of reach for many.
Thankfully for those looking to get involved in the area there are a number of alternative digital currencies into which 'real world' money like pounds and dollars can be exchanged - either to pay for goods, or in the hope that they too will see enormous gains in value, as bitcoin has this year.
While professional investors and economics experts will tell you to avoid bitcoin trading like the plague, the temptation to recreate a Norwegian man's good fortune of turning £15 of bitcoins into £550,000 in four years may prove too tempting for some to turn down.
The most prominent alternative is litecoin, a currency based on the same protocols as bitcoin and introduced by former Google engineer Charlie Lee in 2009.
What's the difference between bitcoin and litecoin?
The main difference between bitcoin and litecoin is the speed at which it can be mined. A block of 50 litecoins is mined by a combined network of miners every 2.5 minutes, whereas the same number of bitcoins takes ten minutes to extract.
Apart from the speed of mining, this also makes litecoin transactions faster, meaning payments for goods or services can be cleared faster than those made by bitcoin - an obvious benefit for retailers.
Another difference is in the total number of coins produced. Litecoin mining will eventually create 84 million coins - four times as many as bitcoin.
Although in theory this suggests litecoin is the cheaper, more plentiful silver to bitcoin's rare and expensive gold, since both coins can be divided into tiny fractions, a comparison to real world commodities is difficult to make.
One litecoin is currently worth around £6.27 according to LitecoinRates.com - significantly cheaper than bitcoin, which was worth £510 at the time of publication.
But where bitcoin has led, litecoin looks set to follow - the currency spiked in April just as bitcoin did and crashed in a similar way, before seeing huge gains through November. As bitcoin surged towards the $1,000 mark, litecoin grew at an equally fast rate, up from $0.05 at the start of the year, to a height of more than $10 by mid-November. Litcoin may only be returning small profits for now, but remember that bitcoin was worth less than $1 just a couple of years ago. Graph showing value of litecoin in US dollars since January. (LTC-charts.com) Graph showing value of litecoin in US dollars since January. (LTC-charts.com)
Why buy litecoins?
Other than amateur traders looking to turn a quick profit, many believe litecoin's growing value is being caused by investors looking to spread their funds across multiple crypto-currencies to protect themselves from bitcoin's volatility.
Richard Boase of crypto-currency website CoinDesk suggests the increase in value could be "investors trying to diversify their crypto-currency portfolios in an attempt to protect themselves from what many view as an inevitable crash after an historic high."
Boase adds that litecoin's sudden spike "may be coming on as investors and traders new to the crypto-currency scene discover a plethora of exotic financial instruments, or it may be the collective voices of the crypto-currency hardcore who lend their support to litecoin for ideological and technical reasons."
How do I buy litecoins?
Major exchanges like Tokyo-based Mt Gox are yet to embrace litecoin on the same scale as bitcoin, which can even be withdrawn from special ATMs. Mt Gox said in August it was working on introducing litecoin to its trading platform, but it is yet to do so.
Right now, the easiest way to buy litecoins is through litecoinlocal.org, which lists sellers who are local to you. IBTimes UK found three sellers in London looking to sell between £1 and £2,000 worth of litecoins for between £7.79 and £10.18 per coin.
Due to the lack of participation from the major exchanges, litecoins are more difficult to come by, with most exchanges running out as soon as the currency is made available, but those who have invested believe anyone interested in the currency should be patient and keep trying while the price is still low.
No one knows what will happen to litecoin - in theory it should be no more stable than bitcoin, and many investors will likely get burnt - but as the US and European countries continue to investigate and accept these crypto-currencies, it is unlikely they will disappear any time soon."
submitted by _r_CryptoMarkets to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

How do I look up Bitcoin prices for manual orders in my online shop?

So I have a small online shop and want to accept Bitcoin. The problem I now have is twofold:
a) I use a webshop host that only allows Paypal as a payment gateway. So, because I don't want to move my whole shop and wanted to dabble in BTC for a start, I thought, well, I'll just accept them manually and have people email me their orders. I've seen other shops do that. But that leads me to my bigger problem:
b) Since the BTC price is very volatile, and I want to be fair, I decided that I'd take the time of the email and look up the BTC price at that time. Now how do I do that? There's a nice chart at Mt. Gox for example, but it only shows hourly candlesticks. No big deal, I thought, I'll just take that hours median. But then I noticed there's no reference to the time zone of the graph. When I looked, it was 15:30 local time (GMT+1), and the chart ended at 13:00 for USD and 12:00 for EUR. Now is the chart in GMT-1 or GMT-2, or is there a lag? If so, how many hours?
So, long story short: Which rate should I use to calculate my BTC order totals? Do you guys know of a place where I can look up "historical" rates accurately?
TL;DR: Where can I look up, e.g. "BTC price in USD at hh:mm UTC/GMT"?
submitted by ChickenFarmer to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

What's the Best Bitcoin Chart? And what it can tell us. Bitcoin Price History 2010 to 2020 Hindi Former head of Mt Gox and his statements over 1 Billion USD in BTC Bitcoin Bottom Reached? MT GOX Alert!! BTC & Altcoin Analysis LIVE Top 10 Moments in Bitcoin History - Bitcoin.com #1

Mt. Gox, Bitstamp, and BTC-e all experienced a stoppage of trading due to massive DDoS attacks that were apparently aimed at exploiting transaction maleability in the exchanges' software. Mt. Gox halted withdrawals first, on February 6, evidently contributing to a sharp drop in BTC price; the DDoS attack was detected on February 11, 2014. Bitcoincharts is the world's leading provider for financial and technical data related to the Bitcoin network. It provides news, markets, price charts and more. But with the bear market of 2014 and the scandal of the Mt. Gox exchange, the price of Litecoin suffers and falls back to around 1 dollar in January 2015. After a small rise in the spring of 2015, Litecoin enters a two year consolidation period and its price stabilizes around $3. From the end of March 2017 Litecoin starts its second bull market. The Mt. Gox exchange briefly halted bitcoin deposits and the exchange rate briefly dipped by 23% to $37 as the event occurred in the US, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) established regulatory guidelines for "decentralized virtual currencies" such as bitcoin, classifying American "bitcoin miners" who sell their generated ... The chart below is the price change over time. The yellow line is the price [USD / BTC] at which actual trades were made. Green and red areas near the yellow line show you maximum and minimum price. Price is shown on the right axis. Bars in the background represent volume (that is, how many coins were traded during that time) enumerated in [BTC ...

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What's the Best Bitcoin Chart? And what it can tell us.

Unfortunately this is a rare chart to find in the Web and that's because the biggest Exchange, that started Bitcoin trading since 2010, Mt Gox, filed for bankruptcy in February 2014 after ... Bitcoin Falls - Round Two! Whale Trader Games, Playing The Charts, Gemini, CFTC Regulations - Ep160 - Duration: 22:27. Coin Mastery 42,157 views On today’s Morning News Report: South Korea’s Fair Trade Commission and exchanges, former Mt Gox leader and 1 billion USD in BTC, LN’s hacker attack, Canada’s crypto regulations, Russian ... Mt. Gox: Solving the Mystery of Bitcoin’s Biggest Disaster I Fortune - Duration: 4:28. Fortune Magazine 9,310 views. 4:28. 97% Owned - Economic Truth documentary ... Today in Bitcoin (2017-07-26) - Mt. Gox Hack Solved? ... Chainalysis Claims Then Seemingly Unclaims to Have Found the Missing 750,000 MT Gox Coins ... How To Read Stock Charts Properly & Develop a ...

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